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Updated Bipartisan Senate Infrastructure Deal: Budgetary and Economic Effects — Penn Wharton Budget Model

Overall spending on infrastructure is much larger than the increase in revenues, which leads to a 1.3 percent increase in government debt in 2031. Over time, as the new spending declines and some provisions, particularly the cryptocurrency reporting requirements, continue to generate increased revenue, the increase in government debt shrinks. In 2040 and 2050, government debt increases relative to baseline by 0.9 and 0.6 percent, respectively. The additional public capital increases the productivity of private capital, however the higher government debt crowds out additional private investment, leading to a 0.2 and 0.1 percent decrease in productive private capital in 2040 and 2050, respectively.

Results from spending $1T on Infrastructure, as proposed in the bipartisan bill, over a 30 year period:

  • 0% increase in GDP
  • 0% increase in workers hours/productivity
  • 0% wage growth
  • 0.1% decrease in stock values
  • 0.6% increase in government debt.

Translation: Spend $1T of taxpayers money and 100.7% goes to waste.

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